In previous posts I have highlighted the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles, one of the main ones being the positive social impact they could have in providing mobility and independence to the millions of people who do not or cannot drive. Whereas this is an undeniable benefit, the downside will be an increase in overall car journeys and congestion on the roads.
The U.K. Department for Transport published a study in 2022 which predicts that a wider adoption of driverless cars would lead to more traffic by “increasing the mobility of the elderly and those who do not hold a driving licence”. This would result in an 85% increase in traffic delays by 2060. In major cities, this could be compounded by a move away from mass public transportation in favor of individual robotaxi journeys.
It is inevitable that if everyone insists on having their own driverless car, traffic volume and parking pressures will rise - both undesirable effects which, in my view, would undermine the potential benefits of AVs.
However, if people are ready to waive individual usage and share robotaxis, then all the benefits would align; less traffic, more access to mobility, improved landuse etc. The success of AVs in social terms will be dependent on a shift in attitudes toward not only personal car ownership, but also personal car usage. This is why it is crucial that a good proportion of the AV fleet in the future be made up of multi-passenger cars - think of the South African taxibus model where people going in the same general direction share a minibus and get individually dropped near their destination.
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